August 27, 2014
By John Zogby
I am sorry to have to tell you this: sometimes the pundits have no idea what they are talking about.
If you watch the talking heads (I try not to) and read the blogs (I read some), you would think that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has mortally wounded her chances of ever becoming President. Her book tour is just short of disastrous; her interviews have revealed a woman who is clearly out of touch with the reality of the 99%; and she has committed the most egregious act a party nominee can do by criticizing a sitting President from her own party. I truly get the scenario.
The only problem is that none of this is true. Our new Zogby Analytics poll shows Mrs. Clinton comfortably leading all the Republican big names we submitted for testing. The new poll, conducted online August 13-15 among 1,223 likely voters nationwide, shows Mrs. Clinton shooting each GOP duck in a row.
She beats former Florida Governor Jeb Bush 49% to 36%; Kentucky Senator Rand Paul 50% to 34%; New Jersey Governor Chris Christie 47% to 35%; former Massachusetts Governor and 2012 GOP standard-bearer Mitt Romney 50% to 35%; former Arkansas Governor and Fox News host Mike Huckabee 49% to 33%; and Florida Senator Marco Rubio 51% to 29%. As we can see, she hovers around the 50% mark against each challenger while none of her putative opponents receives 40%.
Aside from holding solidly on to the Democratic base of young voters, Hispanics, African Americans, and Creative Class voters, what is most striking is how much better she does among Democrats than her opponents do among Republicans. In every test case, Mrs. Clinton polls anywhere from 81% to 88% of her fellow Democrats, while no GOP candidate (including Romney or Paul) achieves more than 77% of Republican support.
Of even greater significance is that Mrs. Clinton receives at least 80% of liberal support while no Republican gets higher than 69% of conservative support. At the same time, Mrs. Clinton is within two points in either direction among white voters, a formula for GOP disaster if that continues among this shrinking demographic within the electorate. And, for icing on the cake, she outpolls even Mr. Rubio 61% to 24% among Hispanics.
Meanwhile, Ms. Warren runs about even with all of the GOP candidates: 34% to 36% against Bush; 34% to 35% against Paul; 34% to 37% vs. Christie; 36% to 38% against Romney: 35% to 33% vs. Huckabee; and 35% to 31% against Rubio.
While about a third of the voters are undecided, it is important that none of the GOP contenders is able to pick up ground against the lesser known and more ideological Warren.
The summer has been good to pundits but it has been even better to Mrs. Clinton.