July 3, 2014
By John Zogby
Washington, DC – Some pundits suggest that it is good that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is airing her dirty linen and making her campaign mistakes now with over two years to go until the 2016 elections. Others, me included, argue that this lackluster performance is not likely to go away. Whichever side is right, the fact is that a new Zogby Analytics poll taken June 27-29 shows that her past two weeks in the limelight have hurt her with the voting public.
The new poll of 1,110 likely voters nationwide conducted online shows the Democrats’ frontrunner leading former Florida Governor Jeb Bush by just 12 points, 47% to 35%, with 12% selecting “Other” and 5% not sure. This lead is down considerably from her 18 point lead in a late March Zogby poll (51%-33%) and the 19 point lead she held in early May (49%-32%).
Mrs. Clinton’s lead has dwindled among men (from 12 to 6 to 4 points) over the three polls; 18-29 year olds (from 17 to 30 to 8 points); 30-49 year olds (from from 24 to 27 to 19 points); among independents (from 12 to 17 to 10 points); among Catholics (from 17 to 13 to 9 points); among Hispanics (56 to 60 to 22 points); voters in union households (42 to 44 to 18 points); single voters (40 to 46 to 28 points); social networkers (44 to 28 to 18 points); and Weekly Wal-Mart Shoppers (21 to 14 to 3 points).
The former First Lady and U.S. Senator from New York now actually trails Mr. Bush among groups she previously led in the Zogby polls – the self-identified Investor Class (39%-46%; she had led by 24 points) and married voters (41%-43%).
In another poll matchup, Mrs. Clinton now leads Kentucky Rand Paul by 12 points – 48% to 36%). She had led by 21 points in March (53% to 32%) and by 17 points in May (51% to 34%). Her lead is only 3 points among men, but 19 among women. Her lead among 18-29 year olds is only 6 points (45%-39%), where it had been 27, 17 and 25 points. She also leads Mr. Paul by just 6 points among independents and 5 points among Weekly Wal-Mart Shoppers. Mr. Paul leads among members of the Investor Class.
In the only other horse race, Mrs. Clinton holds a 15 point lead over New Jersey Governor Chris Christie – 48% to 33%. Her leads had been 26 points in March (52% to 29%) and 16 points (50% to 34%).The biggest factor here is Christie’s anemic support among conservatives, with only 68% supporting him and 18% choosing another candidate.
It is significant that in every case the runaway favorite again polls under 50% and that both Governor Bush and Senator Paul continue to increase their support among key groups. Mrs. Clinton has almost universal name recognition among likely voters and it is unlikely that she could say or do anything to increase her support base.
She will be dependent on party demographics which favor a Democrat in 2016 and mistakes by her opponents. I, of course, will continue to watch key groups – notably young voters, Hispanics, union household voters, and Weekly Wal-Mart Shoppers – which are trending away from her previous support levels.
