January 28, 2015
By John Zogby
Washington, DC – The January Zogby Analytics Poll shows former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton keeping her leads over possible GOP contenders in 2016 – but her leads narrowing significantly.
In the January 16-18 online poll of 890 likely voters, Mrs. Clinton leads former Florida Governor Jeb Bush by only 8 points — 45% to 37% (down from 49% to 34% in mid-December's Zogby Analytics Poll) – and 9 points over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, 46% to 37% (down from 48% to 33%). The poll has a margin of sampling error of +.-3.4 percentage points.
A lead is still a lead but her margins are narrowing among several key subgroups. For example, among women she now leads Bush 48%-34%, where it was 55% to 30% just last month. Her leads have shrunk from 35 points to 16 points among 18-29 year olds, 28 points to 17 points among 30-49 year olds, 16 points to 10 points among independents, and 58 points to 24 points among Hispanics. She has actually gone from a 20 point lead among Catholics to a 6 point deficit.
The numbers are showing very much the same trend line against Romney. In two other races, she now leads Kentucky Senator Rand Paul by 14 points (48% to 34%), while last month it was 18 points (51% to 33%). Against New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, Clinton now leads by 12 points (45% to 33%), whereas last month it was by 15 points (48% to 33%).
Now these are not good numbers for Republicans. While these are the only four candidates we tested, they are all prominent and none of them even hits 40% — a very bad sign for a national party. But essentially, Clinton simply running against herself is not doing well, certainly not enough to close any deal. In fact, during the course of a year of polling, she has dropped into the mid-40s, down from the mid-50s. And, very significantly, these numbers include "leaners" – i.e. those who initially said they were undecided and were asked if they had to choose a candidate today. More leaners chose the GOP candidates than chose her.
watching it closely.